McDonald's Stock: Analysts Maintain Positive Outlook Amid Improving Trends

Major financial institutions KeyBanc and Truist Securities have reaffirmed their optimistic ratings on McDonald's stock, citing improving business trends and solid performance. Despite some recent mixed earnings reports, analysts believe the fast-food giant is well-positioned for future growth, supported by strategic initiatives and its strong market presence.

Key Takeaways

• KeyBanc reiterates an "Overweight" rating with a $335 price target.

• Truist Securities maintains a "Buy" rating and a $350 price target.

• Analysts point to moderating investor expectations and potential for Q4 improvement.

• McDonald's value offerings and international growth are seen as key drivers.

Analyst Confidence Amidst Shifting Expectations

KeyBanc Capital Markets has maintained its "Overweight" rating and a price target of $335.00 for McDonald's (NYSE:MCD). The firm noted that investor expectations for U.S. performance have adjusted to a more "reasonable" range of 1.5-2%, suggesting that fourth-quarter results are poised for significant improvement. Industry conversations indicate a modest uptick in customer engagement and sales activity since the launch of McDonald's Monopoly promotion.

KeyBanc's valuation methodology incorporates peer group analysis of free cash flow and discounted cash flow analysis. The $335 price target is based on an estimated 2026 earnings per share of $13.50, representing approximately 25 times earnings, compared to the stock's current trading multiple of about 23 times forward earnings.

Solid Trends and Market Share Gains

Truist Securities has reiterated its "Buy" rating and a $350.00 price target for McDonald's, following the company's third-quarter 2025 results. Truist's analysis indicates that McDonald's reported inline same-store sales and beat adjusted EBITDA expectations for the quarter. The company's emphasis on value offerings in the U.S. is expected to drive improved traffic in 2026, while a balanced menu approach is yielding solid same-store sales in international markets despite macroeconomic challenges.

Truist anticipates that McDonald's will continue to gain market share, a trend consistent with its historical performance during economic downturns. Margins are expected to expand despite investments in pricing and elevated beef costs. The firm highlights McDonald's defensive business attributes as support for a premium valuation, noting its relatively low price volatility.

Varied Analyst Perspectives

While KeyBanc and Truist maintain positive outlooks, other analysts have offered varied perspectives. TD Cowen lowered its price target to $320 while maintaining a "Hold" rating due to weaker-than-expected U.S. same-store sales. Guggenheim also reduced its price target to $295, citing softer industry trends. RBC Capital initiated coverage with a "Sector Perform" rating and a $320 price target, expressing caution regarding the impact of value offerings on traffic and check sizes. Jefferies, however, maintained a "Buy" rating with a $360 price target, adjusting its U.S. same-store sales estimate upwards.

Despite a slight miss on earnings per share and revenue in the third quarter of 2025, McDonald's stock has shown resilience, reflecting investor confidence in its strategic direction and long-term prospects.

Sources

• KeyBanc reiterates Overweight rating on McDonald’s stock amid improving trends By Investing.com, Investing.com.

• Truist Securities maintains Buy rating on McDonald’s stock amid solid trends By Investing.com, Investing.com.