KeyBanc Bullish on Chipotle, Maintains 'Overweight' Rating Amid Positive Trends

KeyBanc Capital Markets has reaffirmed its 'Overweight' rating and a $45.00 price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock. This decision comes despite a slight reduction in the firm's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate, signaling confidence in the company's improving sales and margin outlook.

Key Takeaways

• KeyBanc maintains an 'Overweight' rating and $45.00 price target on Chipotle stock.

• Despite a lowered 2025 EPS estimate, the firm cites modest year-to-date same-store sales improvements.

• Potential stimulus-driven upside and accommodating year-over-year comparisons are expected to support near-term stock performance.

• Chipotle is trading near the lower end of its historical valuation range for 2026 earnings.

Analyst Outlook and Rationale

The investment firm adjusted its 2025 EPS estimate downwards due to a softer outlook for fourth-quarter 2025 sales and margins. However, KeyBanc highlighted that Chipotle has experienced modest improvements in same-store sales trends throughout the current year. The company has also demonstrated healthy revenue growth, with a 7.31% increase over the past twelve months.

KeyBanc anticipates that year-over-year comparisons will remain favorable for the majority of the year, which could provide a tailwind for Chipotle's stock performance. Additionally, the firm pointed to potential stimulus-driven upside through mid-year as a factor that could help the stock "grind higher" in the short term.

Valuation and Future Drivers

Chipotle stock is currently trading at approximately 33 times its projected 2026 earnings per share, a multiple that sits near the lower end of its historical trading range. KeyBanc's price target of $45.00 represents about 36 times its 2026 EPS estimate.

The firm is closely monitoring for signs of underlying demand strength, which it considers a more significant long-term driver for stock appreciation in the fast-casual restaurant sector.

Recent Developments and Peer Analysis

In other recent analyst actions, Telsey Advisory Group reiterated its 'Outperform' rating, emphasizing Chipotle's global expansion potential and a long-term target of 7,000 restaurants. TD Cowen raised its price target to $44 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, citing achievable 2026 sales projections. Bernstein SocGen Group also increased its price target to $50, noting the stock's current valuation relative to historical levels.

On the corporate front, Chipotle has appointed Ilene Eskenazi as Chief Legal and Human Resources Officer, expanding her previous responsibilities. Stephanie Perdue will serve as Interim Chief Marketing Officer. In a related industry development, Telsey Advisory Group initiated coverage on CAVA Group with an 'Outperform' rating, positioning it as a preferred stock alongside Chipotle for future growth.

Chipotle is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings on February 3.

Sources

• KeyBanc reiterates Overweight rating on Chipotle stock amid improving trends By Investing.com, Investing.com.